Lawyer Martin Kpebu says he expects the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to retain power in the 2028 general elections, arguing that the party's electoral gains in 2024 make an NPP comeback within one electoral cycle unlikely.

Mr Kpebu made the remarks during an interview with Classfmonline.com, while discussing calls for a presidential pardon for Chairman Bernard Antwi-Boasiako, popularly known as Chairman Wontumi, who has been sentenced to 20 years with hard labour over illegal mining (galamsey).

“I believe it will be an NDC administration [that pardons him],” he said.

“The next president will be from NDC, absolutely. The chances are very high.”

Explaining the basis for his prediction, Mr Kpebu said he was relying on electoral trends rather than speculation.

He said he was forecasting “based on a trajectory”.

“The last election the NDC came from a deficit of about 540,000 votes. The 2020 elections John Mahama lost by between 500,000 and 540,000 votes, and in 2024, he made up for that deficit and won by about 1.7 million. It means that about 2.1 million citizens more voted for JM,” he explained.

“With that, you can't have 2.1 million citizens leave the NDC in an election within four years - maybe half of them - but you can't get all of them to desert the NDC and go and vote for NPP within four years. It'd be extremely extraordinary. It takes longer, by about eight years,” he added.

Mr Kpebu also dismissed suggestions that voter apathy among New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters was a significant reason for the party's defeat in the 2024 elections.

According to him, even if those if those numbers were to vote, “there's no chance for the NPP” in the 2028 elections.

He described the voter apathy narrative as “a paper analysis” and “just a sweet story” aimed at explaining away the NPP's total defeat in the 2024 polls.

Mr Kpebu also identified three leading figures he believes are best positioned to succeed President John Dramani Mahama as the NDC's next presidential candidate.

According to him, National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah is the frontrunner, followed by Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu and Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Baah Forson. He explained that the ranking was based on their years of political experience.